Duluth, Vermont, was home to a total of 10 breweries in 2020 and Gregory Dunkling, a program director of business of craft beer at the University of Vermont, has noted that the craft beer market is expanding as we speak. Although, some people wonder about the sustainability of these markets.

“Is this growth sustainable? Fair question,” Dunkling said of craft breweries, in a recent interview with The Food Institute. “While some markets may indeed be oversaturated, what we’ve seen are breweries opening in smaller communities and additional breweries opening in larger cities.”

Molson Coors recently discontinued San Diego’s Saint Archer Brewery brand, seven years after its purchase. The company also sold Saint Archer’s brewery and local taprooms to Illinois-based Kings and Convicts Brewing. These moves come off the back of the fallout of the pandemic and the pattern from drinkers moving towards hard seltzers and other alternative beer options.

In 2020, the Brewers Association tallied 8,764 breweries and brewpubs, up 373 from a year earlier. Past studies have indicated that any community of 10,000 residents could sustain a well-run brewery.

“There’s also an interesting phenomenon that has emerged when understanding the optimum number of breweries in any community,” Dunkling said. “Once a community gains recognition as a beer haven, people follow.”

In 2020, the microbrewery segment saw 63 closures compared to 83 openings. In the same year, the brewpub category saw 166 closures and 220 openings.

“While the gap between openings and closures has never been closer, over the past two years more microbreweries and brewpubs have opened than closed,” the University of Vermont program director said. And “often there is a large spike in initial interest in new products – except wine, which remains fairly consistent – then a slow-down in demand. Two years ago, alcoholic seltzers were all the rage; last year demand crashed. Meanwhile, consumer data doesn’t suggest a huge shift away from craft beer.”

In 2022, determining the need for a new craft brewery in a given location requires much greater research and consideration than it did a decade ago.

Still, Dunkling sees reason for optimism for anyone operating a brewpub in the near-term.

“Younger drinkers – 21- to 35-year-olds – look more like the craft beer drinkers of yesteryear; they like to try everything,” he said, citing the sentiment of his respected colleague, Bart Watson.

‘Craft beer drinkers are never going back to the beer their dads drank,’” Dunkling added.